【摘要】 本文主要分析南京地区7～8月发生午后雷阵雨天气、气候与其相关的某些参数的特征，以及大尺度的天气形势条件，用南京单站资料分析位势不稳定度和不稳定能量，从物理量场判定南京是否处在产生雷阵雨的潜在不稳定区内，从相关资料中建立南京地区7～8月午后雷阵雨天气的概率预报方程。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper mainly analysed climatic and general scale background that causes thunderstorm or shower in midnight during July and Oct. in Nanjing area. Using physical fields such as potential instability and instability energy obtained from data of Nanjing Station,we judged whther Nanjing was in the instability area or not,and set up the probability equations for thunderstorm or shower forecast during July and Oct. in Nanjing.更多还原