【摘要】 目的 :研究年龄、时期和出生队列对疾病的效应的定量分析方法。方法 :采用Kupper数学模型 ,用矩阵的三角分解法求解 ,对三因素的各个亚层成分效应大小的定量参数估计。结果 :1970～ 1994年栖霞市胃癌死亡率前 10年上升后 15年呈平稳下降趋势。这种现象与时期因素关系不大 ,主要与 65～ 85岁及以上年龄组和 1910～至 1890～五个出生队列人群暴露于胃癌的危险性因素程度高有关。结论 :栖霞市胃癌死亡率的变化趋势与出生队列因素有关更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To calculate the quantitative effects of ageperiodcohort in vital rates of gastric cancer mortality in Qixia county during 1970-1994.Methods:The mathematical model created by Kipper,and the regression coefficients of age,period and cohort were calculated by using triangle matrix.Results:The changing trend of gastric cancer mortality during the period time related to elder age groups(65-85 years old)and the five birth cohorts(from 1910-to 1890-).Conclusions:The trend of gastric cancer mortality in Qixia may be related to birth cohorts.更多还原