【摘要】 根据2000年—2030年不同人口控制方案的预测结果和有关参数 ,利用构建的一个适合于区域范围人 -地关系简单平衡模型 ,以5年为时间步长 ,5 %为粮食自给率步长 ,计算分析了安塞县21世纪头30年人口承载能力胁迫力。结果表明 ,只有严格控制人口增长 ,并在此基础上确定合理的粮食自给率 ,以保持人口承载能力胁迫力为负值或较小、较短时间内的正值 ,才能退耕还林 (草 ) ,真正实现生态环境的恢复与重建。安塞县如此 ,黄土高原地区乃至我国北方农牧交错带更是如此。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to estimation of population during 2000—2030’s and some relevant parameters, using a simple model with population vs. farmland equilibrium, taking 5-year and 5% food self-reliance both as intervals, the stress of bearing capacity of population in the first 30 years in this century have been calculated for Ansai county. The results indicated: returning cultivated land to woods and grasslands could not be accomplished, unless the rational food self-reliance percentage was determined through controlling population growth rigorously, and keeping stress of bearing capacity of population bellow zero or very little in short time. This model is likely to be available for another regions such as soil-eroded plateau and the ecotones of agriculture and animal husbandry of north China.更多还原