【摘要】 讨论管道煤气泄漏事故风险评价过程中泄漏源强度、扩散模式和伤害模式的不确定性问题。采用随机抽样推断法对管道煤气泄漏源的输入参数的不确定性问题进行定量的分析，并且讨论了泄漏时间的不定性与确定泄漏源强度的关系，提出了管道气体泄漏时间估算方法。对于管道煤气泄漏事故可采用定量的比较分析方法说明扩散模式和伤害模式的不定性问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper discussed the uncertainties of the leaking source intensity, the diffuse models and the injury models on the processes of the risk assessment of pipeline gas leakage accidents. The quantitative analysis of the input parameters can be done by probability random sampling deduction method for the leaking source of pipeline gas. The relationship between the uncertainties of leaking times of gas in the pipeline and the intensity of the leakage sources has been discussed. The uncertainties of the diffuse models and the injury models can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of the pipeline gas.更多还原