【摘要】 对浙江省旱年与涝年的 50 0 h Pa环流场、太平洋海温场、环流特征量、El Nino和天文特征等环境场进行了合成分析 .分析结果表明 ,这些环境场的显著差异是导致旱涝的基本原因 .应用高相关月份的环境场导出集合因子、EOF、车贝雪夫多项式正交展开典型场和环流特征量等预报因子 .应用不同类别的预报因子和逐步回归分析 ,构造了浙江省春夏期降水的分类预报模式及其综合集成预报 .预报试验证明 :预报模式对浙江省春夏期降水具有预报能力更多还原

【Abstract】 The composite analyses of environmental fields(500hPa and 100hPa circulations, SST, parameters of circulation, El Nino and sunspot number) indicated that differences of these environmental fields are causes of drought or flood during spring summer in Zhejiang.Through the calculations of correlations between environmental fields before May and precipitation during spring summer. Predictors(ensemble, EOF, Chebyshev polynomials and parameters of circulation) were derived. Categorical and consensus forecasting models for Zhejiang precipitation during spring summer were constructed by using categorical predictors and stepwise regression analysis. The forecast scores indicated that these models are efficient.更多还原