【摘要】 我国目前正处在由计划经济向市场经济体制过渡的阶段，从而使得消费需求在经济中的作用发生了深刻变化。消费需求作为一个主要的宏观经济变量．已经成为宏观经济调控的主要研究对象之一。我们利用多变量时间序列方差分量分析模型（MultivarateTimeSeriesVarianceComponentModel，简称MTV模型）对影响我国消费需求变动的各种因素进行了分析．从数量上判断各因素对消费的影响程度；分析了消费需求对国内生产总值（GDP）的影响；最后分析了我国最终消费率和资本形成率．并提出了我们的见解和政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is now witnessing a transition from planned economy to market economy, as a resultof which the role of consumption demand in economy has been profoundly changed. As animportant variahle in Macro-economics, consumption demand has become one of the key ob-jects of study in macro-economic control. By using Multivarate Time Series Variance Compo-Tlent Model (called MTV Model for short), we have analyzed the factors affecting thechange of our national consumption demand and made an assessment of how much each factorinfluences consumption. In addition, we have examined how consumption demand influencesChlna’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Finally, we have analyzed the national ultimateconsumption rate and the capital production rate and put forward our views and policy proposals.更多还原