节点文献
周平均“日用电量-气温”关系评估及预测模型研究
Research on Correlation Evaluation between Weekly Average Daily Energy Consumption and Air Temperature and its Forecast Models
【摘要】 对湖北3年逐日用电量(E)与气温(T)的相关性进行了研究,结果表明:缺电(1995年)和不缺电(1997、1998年)两种情况下,逐日E-T相关性的冬、夏季差异没有本质改变,即夏季(5-9月)各月呈一致正相关。冬季(10~4月)各月相关性较复杂,时正时负且相关不显著;1℃效应量后期比前期有所增加。另外还对3个夏季各21周日均用电量与对应气温建立了评估和预测模型。
【Abstract】 According to the study on the correlation betWeen daily energy consumption(E)and air tenperature(T) of Hubei,the results show that the correlation of E-T is not essentially changed in circumstances of electrical shortage and oversupply.the correlation is postive in summer, but in winter,it is not obvious and it is positive or negative on occasion.lseeffect increases gradually with time p assing. M e anwhile, the evaluation and forecast models for weekly average daily energy consumption-air temperature correlation of 21 Weeks per summer in 3 years are established.
【Key words】 Energy consumption; air temperature; correlation; ito effect,; forecast model.;
- 【文献出处】 华中电力 ,CENTRAL CHINA ELECTRIC POWER , 编辑部邮箱 ,2000年01期
- 【分类号】TM714
- 【被引频次】17
- 【下载频次】149