【摘要】 利用系统动力学对柴达木盆地的水资源承载力进行了深入研究 .根据该地区的特点以人口为主要承载目标建立了柴达木盆地水资源系统动力学仿真模型 ( SDIMWRSCCB) .通过该模型对柴达木盆地 2 0 2 0年和 2 0 50年的水资源承载力以及承载人口进行了预测和分析 ,提出高、中、低 3个方案 .并进一步分析比较得出一个经济和环境协调发展的综合方案 ,从而为决策者提供了科学的决策依据 .更多还原

【Abstract】 System Dynamics(SD) was used for further studying the water resource supporting capacity of Chaidamu Basin.According to the character istics of the basin,the System Dynamics Imitating Model of Water Resource Supporting Capacity of Chaidamu Basin(SDIMWRSCCB) was built based on the main supporting projective of population.The water resource supporting capacity and supporting population of Chaidamu Basin in 2020 and 2050 were forecasted and analyzed by means of the model.Three alternatives,High,Middle and Low Alternatives,were put forward,and then a synthesis one under which environment and economy can be developed in harmony was made.So the decision maker can use it to make more scientific and dependable decision.更多还原