【摘要】 长江流域是我国重要的农产品生产基地 ,粮食生产在我国占有十分重要的地位 ,历史上曾是我国粮食最大生产区域和商品粮的主要提供者。分析表明 ,2 1世纪前期 ,长江流域粮食供求状况总体上仍将是供大于求。在2 0 0 0年、2 0 10年和 2 0 2 0年流域粮食生产量比需求量分别多 87亿公斤、2 31亿公斤和 33 0亿公斤。这说明作为一个整体的长江流域的商品粮区域性质不会发生改变 ,在近二、三十年内仍将是我国粮食的主产区和粮食调出区之一更多还原

【Abstract】 The Yangtze valley is one of the important bases of the agricultural products in China, its grain production plays a very improtant role in the country. Historically, it was the largest contributor for the supply of merchandise grain in China. This paper shows that the general trend of grain supply and demand in the Yangtze valley remain unchanged now. Based on the analysis of population and consumption structure of the Yangtze valley, the paper shows that the surplus of the food supply in this region will be 8.7 billion kilograms, 21.1 billion kilograms and 33.0 billion kilograms in the year 2000, 2010 and 2020 respectively. In the coming 20～30 years, with the rational adjustment of food production the Yangtze valley will remain as one of the main regions for the grain production and exporting in China.更多还原