【摘要】 根据三类产业与居民生活用电量在用电方式、用电增长趋势等方面的不同特点 ,对灰色 GM ( 1 ,1 )模型、改进的GM( 1 ,1 )模型以及关联多因子模型在地区用电量和最高用电负荷预测中的应用做了初步研究。以上海市 1 990～ 1 998年的电力资料和经济资料为基础 ,应用几种灰色模型对三类产业用电量、居民生活用电量及最高用电负荷进行了预测 ,并将几种模型的预测结果进行了比较。结果表明 ,不同模型适用于不同特点的电力消费预测 ,指数加权变换 GM( 1 ,1 )模型适用于第一产业、第二产业及总用电量的预测 ,关联多因子模型适用于第三产业、居民生活用电量及最高用电负荷的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the different features of electric power consumption of the three classes of industries and daily life, elementary study is given in this paper on GM(1,1), improved GM(1,1), and Related Multi factors Grey Model, which are used to forecast electricity consumption and the highest electric load. Based on the electric power data and economic data of Shanghai from 1990 to 1998, alternative Grey Models are used to forecast middle term electricity consumption and the highest electric load in Shanghai, and the forecasting results are compared and analyzed. The results show that each of the different Grey Models has its own suitable application to the forecasting of electric power consumption. Exponent weighted GM(1,1) is fit to forecast electricity consumption of the primary industry, the secondary industry, and whole society. Related Multi-factors Grey Model is suited to forecast electricity consumption of the tertiary industry, daily life and highest electric load.更多还原