【摘要】 本文主要讨论了利用形变数据反演断层运动位错模型参数的贝叶斯方法。利用现代大地测量方法 ,尤其是空间大地测量方法获得的地壳形变数据 ,可以用来反演活动断层的位错模型参数 ,并且利用反演得到的结果 ,确定断层运动的闭锁区。作为应用 ,给出了运用地表观测站观测到的速度值反演圣安德烈斯断层运动位错模型参数的结果 ,并且据此预测了沿圣安德烈斯断层未来最可能发生地震的断层分段更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the Bayesian inversion method has been studied and applied in the determination of parameters of dislocation model of active faults by using crust deformation surveying data. Based on the deformation data obtained by modern geodetic surveying, especially the space geodetic surveying, the parameters of the dislocation model of active faults can be determined and the inversion results can be used to deduce the locked fault segments. As an example, the parameters of dislocation model of San Andres Fault has been determined by the data on the velocities of the ground observation stations, and further the locked segments along SAF was deduced where should be the potential earthquake sites.更多还原