【摘要】 从中国东北样带 (NECT)内的农牧交错区选择典型样点作为研究单元 ,经分析得出该区域属样带上近年来耕地变化最明显的区域 ;在此基础上 ,对可能影响耕地变化的自然气候因素和人口、社会经济因素等分别进行相关分析 ,进而得出该区域近年来耕地变化的主要驱动力 .初步结论为 :人口是农牧交错区对耕地变化影响最大的驱动力 ,次之为经济发展 ,再次为技术水平 .更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of sampling several counties in the transitional area between pastoral and agricultural regions along NECT, the arable land change in the area during recent more than ten years is analyzed. The result shows that the transitional area has been the principal place along NECT undergoing the land use change. The further driving factor analysis with methods of PCA, STA and GRA revealed the causes of the arable land change. The preliminary conclusions are that the natural conditions, especially climate factors, are not the main cause, but the human activities, particularly population growth in the first place, and economic development and agricultural technology are among the list of principal factors leading to the arable land change.更多还原