【摘要】 应用数字滤波、谱分析、主成分分析 (PrincipalComponentsAnalysis以及Mann -Kendall非参数统计检验等分析手段 ,对选取的位于阿尔泰山、天山、帕米尔 -阿赖山及喜马拉雅山 17条冰川的物质平衡观测系列进行了分析 .结果表明 ,各冰川在空间距离较小时 ,物质平衡变化具有同步性 ,随着冰川间空间距离增大 ,物质平衡变化有明显的非同步性 ,这一结果可以成为合理选择冰川开展物质平衡观测的基础 .分析还表明 ,各冰川均表现出的准 2a周期振荡与本区域气候波动的准2a周期振荡是一致的 ,非参数统计检验识别出几乎所有长系列物质平衡在 70年代初前后均有一次突变现象 .由主成分分析说明 ,各冰川物质平衡面积加权平均可以近似代表高亚洲区域冰川物质平衡变化的趋势 .更多还原

【Abstract】 The High Asia, broad in area with numerous huge mountain ranges, is one region with glaciers mostly concentrated. However glacier mass balance measurements cannot cover most of the mountains because of the high altitudes, complicated topography and logistic limations. Analyzing the temporal and spatial variations of mass balance sequences observed on some High Asia glaciers is therefore of help to evaluate the regional mass balance variations and their response to global warming. 17 sequences of mass balance observed in the Altay Mts., Tianshan Mts., Pamir-Alai Mts. and Himalayas are selected for analysing by means of frequency filtering, spectral analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), as well as Mann-Kendall Non Parameter Rank statistic. It is found that mass balance series has a similar variation pattern for the glaciers within a short distance. For example, mass balance of glaciers in the Tuyuksu basin shows nearly the same variation trend. However, regional inhomogeneity in mass balance variations appears for the glaciers within a large range. This can be seen from the lagged correlation analysis among filtered mass balance sequences in different mountains. For example, mass balance of the Glacier No.1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River at a lagged 8-years has the highest correlation coefficient with that of the Tuyuksu Glacier, although these two glaciers all in the Tianshan Mts. From this analysis, we can establish a fundamental base for constructing a regional monitoring network of glacier mass balance. By frequency analysis, it is found that most of the balance sequences show a periodical fluctuation of about 2 years corresponding to that of climatic parameters. It is also revealed that there exists an abrupt change in the variations of mass balance of almost all glaciers. Comparison with regional climatic changes (e.g. air temperature variations) in the last 40 years indicates that such a phenomenon can be attributed to the abrupt change in the climate of the region, i.e., air temperature in some meteorological stations has shown a sudden change in the mid-1970s. After the PCA method, the variations of the sequence of area-weighted average of all observed mass balance could roughly represent a regional variations of glaciers in High Asia.更多还原