【摘要】 本文提出格氏栲种群以年轮确定种群个体年龄并与胸径、树高确定种群个体年龄有机结合的时间序列预测个体年龄方法。通过时间序列分析，确定出格氏栲种群个体年龄与胸径关系的ＡＲＩＭＡ（１，２，０）模型，经检验该模型的相似性系数为９３．４８％，即该模型预测胸径生长量是可靠的。同时，通过ＡＲＩ－ＭＡ（１，２，０）模型预测结果与实际调查材料组合起来，建立较为准确反映个体年龄的组合模型：Ａ＝１０．１５４５１＋１．１１３８５１Ｄ＋０．０４２２００４９Ｄ２－０．０００２２７３０３Ｄ３式中Ｄ为格氏栲种群个体胸径，Ａ为格氏栲种群个体年龄，相关指数为０．９９９８。可见，组合模型的格氏栲种群个体胸径与年龄回归关系极显著，效果理想，为相应研究提供一个较为可靠的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study presented a new method to determine individual age of Castanopsis kawakamii population using time series model by integrating its annual ring with its diameter and height ARIMA(1,2,0) model of the relationship between individual age and diameter of C kawakamii population was determined by analysis of time series,the correlative efficient is 93 48% Thus ARIMA(1,2,0) model can be used to forecast diameter growth Meantime,the combination model which can exactly predict the individual age of C kawakamii population was built by combining predicted results of ARIMA(1,2,0) model with actual investigation,i e, A=10 15451+1 113851D+0 04220049D 2-0 000227303D 3 where, D was individual diameter, A was individual age,and the correlative efficient was 0 9998 As a result,the extremely remarkable relationship between this individual diameter and age stated clearly that using the combination model to determine individual age of C kawakamii population was an efficient method,which provided a reliable method for relevant studies更多还原