【摘要】 提出了一个确定震害预测中设定地震的方法,包括:确定贡献量最大的潜在震源区、潜在震源区内贡献量最大的震级档和设定地震的构造位置等。以福建省泉州市为例,获得50年超越概率63%、10%和2%等3个概率水平下的设定地震。本文给出的设定地震方法综合了确定论方法和概率论方法的优点,有助于地震危险性分析方法的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 A method is proposed to determine the scenario earthquake in seismic risk assessment for city.It includes the determination of potential seismic source with the largest contribution,the magnitude with the largest contribution in the potential seismic source and tectonic location of scenario earthquake.Taking the Quanzhou City,Fujian Province,as an example,three scenario earthquakes are acquired,corresponding to the exceedence probability of 63%,10% and 2% in 50a.The scenario earthquakes given in the article have the advantages of both deterministic and probabilistic methods and it is helpful for the development of seismic hazard analysis.更多还原