【摘要】 介绍了采场底板突水预测的新方法——突水概率指数法．以肥城煤田为例，阐述了该方法在预测煤矿底板突水中的应用．该方法的基本思想为：基于大量的采场底板突水案例分析，找出导致煤矿底板突水的主要因素；根据各种因素在底板突水中所起的作用大小，利用概率统计法及专家经验法确定各种因素在底板突水中所占的权重，建立计算突水概率指数的数学模型；将模型应用到已有的突水案例中，计算出各个突水案例的突水概率指数；再用概率统计的方法，预测某种突水概率指数下突水的可能性及突水程度．更多还原

【Abstract】 A new method used in forecasting water inrush from mining floor is put forward, its application in Feicheng coal field is introduced. The basic idea is as follows: 1) based on a large number of cases, the main factors leading to the are found out; 2) according to the contribution of each factor to water inrush, the weight is given by using probability and statistics method or expert experience; then the mathematics model to calculate the probability index of water inrush is established; 3) with the model, the probability index of water inrush of various cases is calculated; 4) on the basis of probability and statistics, the possibility and degree of water inrush of any probability index is predicted.更多还原