【摘要】 在岩石边坡稳定可靠度分析中，利用贝叶斯（ Ｂａｙｅｓ）方法对断层带抗剪强度参数进行分析，充分利用滑动面以外的地质信息和现场实践经验，较好地解决了小样本实验数据问题。可靠度分析采用离散化降维解法，以原工程采用的边坡稳定设计分析方法为基础，编制了相应的 Ｒ Ｓ Ｓ Ａ Ｐ程序，在该程序中直接调用原设计程序，确保工程结构的可靠度设计和评价与现行工程设计方法的和谐统一。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper the param eters of fault shear strength are analysed by m eans of Bayess m ethod. Taking full advantage of the geological inform ation of the slope outside the sliding plane and of the in situexperiences, w e have achieved a good solution for the statistic problem of experim ental data for sm allsam ples. The discretization dim ension reduction m ethod is used in reliability analysis. On the basis of theoriginal m ethod of slope stability for design, the related program R S S A P is developed. The concordance ofthe design and the estim ation of the structure reliability w ith the current engineering design has been ensuredby the fact that the original design com puter program is directly used.更多还原