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应用卫星云导风进行台风路径预报试验

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTES OF THE PREDICTION OF TYPH00N TRACKS BY USINGSATELLITE CLOUD-DERIVED WIND

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【作者】 张守峰; 王诗文;

【Author】 Zhang Shoufeng; Wang Shiwen;(Department Of Atmospheric Sciences.IVanjing University 210093) (National Meteorological Center)

【机构】 南京大学大气科学系!南京; 210093; 国家气象中心;

【摘要】 在国家气象中心台风数值预报业务系统中引入国家卫星气象中心提供的卫星云导风资料,进行三项预报试验.首先用卫星云导风资料厂正客观分析风场;其次将云导风资料加人到输对称的人造台风模型风场上,使之产生非对称风场、在前两项试验的基础上进行相应的质量场调整,使之形成较协调的客观分析场和非对称的人造台风模型。试验结果表明:卫星云导风资料订正客观分析风场对台风路径预报有明显改进;用云导风形成人造台风模型非对称风场对台风路径预报也有所改进;对订正后的客观分析场进行质量场调整可进一步提高台风路径预报的精度,而对非对称人造台风模型进行质量场调整,对减小台风路径预报误差作用不明显。

【Abstract】 The wind field data derived from satellite images which are provided byNational Satellite Meteorological Center are led into the numerical weatherprediction system of typhoon tracks at National Meteorological Center. Threeexperiments are done by using them in some cases. The first experiments is tocorrect the objective analysis wind field. The second one is to attain anasymmetric wind field of bogus vortex. In order to form more harmonic analyst sfield and asymmetric bogus vortex, mass field is modified based on the abovementioned two experiments. It is shown that the first one has an obviousimprovement on the forecast of typhoon tracks; the second one also has someeffective effect on the forecast of typhoon tracks; the modification ofobjective analysis field in the third one can further improve the forecastprecision.

  • 【文献出处】 热带气象学报 ,JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY , 编辑部邮箱 ,1999年04期
  • 【分类号】P457.8
  • 【被引频次】73
  • 【下载频次】491
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