【摘要】 采用暴雨站数预报与站点降水量预报相结合的方法预报暴雨落点，在１９９８年７～８月的暴雨落点预报中，ＴＳ评分达到２２．４％，超过了ＨＬＡＦＳ和主观预报。进一步的研究分析表明：这种方法可充分利用降水量预报的空间分布信息，预报准确率还存在较大的可提高空间，是一种较为有效的暴雨落点客观预报方法更多还原

【Abstract】 The forecast of rainstorm fall area was done by the rainstorm station number prediction combined with the rainfall forecast of one station.The TS grade of a operational forecast for rainstorm fall area from July to August of 1998 was up to 22 4%,and more than both HLAFS and subjective forecast.Further,the analysis results show that the method is an effective forecast for rainstorm fall area,and makes the best use of the spatial distribution of rainfall forecast.更多还原