【摘要】 通过对高原地面气温、热带海表温度和南半球气旋资料的普查分析，经验性地挑选并提出１月份拉萨地面气温距平、４ 月份赤道东西太平洋海表温度梯度、４ 月份赤道印度洋海表升温幅度、１ 月份南半球低纬气旋数等４ 种能提前１～２ 个月比较准确地预警广西前汛期大涝的因子，指出高原热状况、热带海洋行为、南半球低纬大气的斜压性是影响广西前汛期雨量的重要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Through general analysis of the data of the plateau surface temperature,the tropic sea surface temperature and the Southern Hemisphere cyclones,four predictors were picked out experientially.The four factors are the Lhasa surface air temperature anomaly in January,the equator east west Pacific surface temperature gradient in April,the equator India Ocean surface temperature rising extent in April and the count of southern hemisphere low latitude cyclone in January.They can predict the serious waterlogging accurately during the early flood season in Guangxi.It′s pointed out that the plateau thermal regime;the tropic sea action and the atmosphere baroclinicity of the low latitude in Southern Hemisphere are the important factors that affect the rainfall of Guangxi during the early flood season.Also,the forecast and the physical mechanism were analyzed and discussed.更多还原