【摘要】 采用Penman-Montieth法计算参考作物潜在蒸散，结合长江三角洲地区的农业生产状况，建立了本地区农业耗水的物理模型，与实测资料相比，该模型具有较高的精度，能够反映农业用水的实际情况。考虑未来三十种不同的气候倩景及未来城市化发展速度，结果表明，未来气温升高，农业耗水量增加，但考虑耕地面积减少，未来的农业耗水量较目前有明显减少。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper adopted the Penman-Montieth method to calculate potentialevapotranspiration of reference crops, and coupling with the agricultural production situation in theYangtze Delta,develops an agriculture water consumption model. This model has higherprecision than the observational data and can reflect the actural status of agriculture water need.Considering thirty different climate scenarios and development speed of urbanization in thefuture, the result shows the agriculture water demand increases with temperature rising anddecreases obviously with cultivated area reducing.更多还原