【摘要】 自１９９７年７月起始于泰国的东亚金融危机爆发以来，巴西的金融市场经受过３次激烈的动荡。这３次金融动荡不仅导致巴西股市大幅度下跌、资金大量外逃、巴币的大幅度贬值，而且也引起整个拉美、美国、欧洲和亚洲金融市场的动荡，曾一度给世界金融市场带来恐慌。有的报刊...更多还原

【Abstract】 Abstract Since the Real Plan was initiated in 1994, the Brazilian economy had been on a good track of growth. Though there were problems, the government took measures to correct them. Therefore, it can be said that there are no basic conditions for a financial crisis in Brazil. In other words,what happened in early January 1999 was only a turmoil, which was caused by both internal and external factors. Devaluation of the Real would be both positive and negative to the Brazilian economy. It makes the debt burden heavier and brings the danger of returning high inflation rates. At the same time,however,it can promote exports and also create better opportunity to lower the interest rates, thus curbing the fiscal deficits. The turmoil would not lead to a worse crisis. This is simply because Brazil, a large country in the continent,would win support from the international community. No less important are the facts that Brazil has been carrying out reforms and it has large amount of foreign reserves. Finally, years of financial regulation and prudent supervision has led to a more disciplined financial system. The Brazilian drama teaches us a lesson. In the age of globalizaiton,any country should pay attention to fiscal balance and strengthening the fiscal system.更多还原