【摘要】 提出确定保证出力的新方法．对固定的保证出力值ｎ，制订了达到最优保证率的调度规则 （规则Ａ）并对此进行了理论论证．进一步证明了 最优保证率－保证出力关系曲线是单调递降函数．从而对给定水库系统的保证率ｒ０∈（０，１） 可得到与之对应的保证出力的临界值．对其作适当的修正即可确定保证出力．更多还原

【Abstract】 A new method is presented for determining the firm power. We have developed a reservoirs dispatch strategy and proved the following facts: (1) for a fix value of the firm power, the strategy gives the maximum guarantee rate comparing to other dispatch strategy; (2) the function relation between the optimal firm probability and the firm power is decreased. According to the firm probabilitys low bound r 0∈(0, 1) , it is easy to determine a threshold valve which gives a reasonable reference value for determining the firm power, considering these properties.更多还原