【摘要】 青藏高原是世界上中低纬度地区最大的现代冰川分布区，这里冰川末端在近百年来总的进退变化趋势是退缩，但在本世纪初至２０～３０ 年代和７０～８０ 年代间多数冰川曾出现过稳定甚至前进。对比近百年来气候变化，冰川变化虽然滞后于温度变化，但它们之间存在着很好的对应关系，多数冰川对温度变化滞后时间在１０～２０ 年间。根据８０ 年代以来平均物质净平衡值，大致将青藏高原划分为：内部为平衡或正平衡区；向外为负平衡区；边缘为强负平衡区。以冰川对气候响应滞后关系预测，在今后１０～２０ 年间， 青藏高原边缘冰川末端仍继续处于后退，而高原内部冰川末端位置变化不大更多还原

【Abstract】 The Qinghai Tibetan plateau is the biggest present glacial distribution region in the world. Except for glacier stability or advancing from the beginning of 20 century to 1930s and from 1970s to 1980s,the tendency of the glacier fluctuations is retreating in the last 100 years. Glacier fluctuations is well relevant to climate change in the past 100 years,though glacier fluctuations is delayed in reacting climate change. For most glaciers,the delayed time is 10~20 years.According to the values of the average net mass balance in glaciers since 1980′s,there are three regions over the Qinghai Tibetan plateau:the balance or positive balance,negative balance and strong negative balance regions are located in the inland Plateau,from inland to the edge of the plateau and the edge of plateau,respectively. By the hysteresis effect of glacier fluctuations responding to climate change,the authors forecast that glaciers will retreat in the edge of the plateau, and stable in the inland plateau in the next 10~20 years.更多还原