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90年代后期北京市年雨量的预测
THE ANNUAL RAINFALL FORECAST OFBEIJING IN THE LATE NINETIES
【摘要】 通过对北京地区1900年以来雨量、气温和太阳活动的关系及厄尔尼诺(Elnino)年的关系处理分析,给出一种预测北京市年雨量的数学模型,已准确预测了1996.1997年的年雨量,并给出1998年的雨量预测值为750~800mm和1999年的雨量预测值为630—68mm.
【Abstract】 The relationship among rainfall,air temperature and solar activity in Beijing areasince 1900 and the effect of Elnino year are studied. It reveals that the weather variation inBeijing area is related to the sunspot activity, and if the year is Elnino year it is easy to be aridin Beijing area. From data analysis, a mathematic model is proposed to forecast the rainfall inBeijing area. By using the model, the rainfall in 1996 and 1997 has been precisely forecast.And the forecasting annual rainfall is 750~800mm for 1998 and 630 ~680 mm for 1999respectively.
【关键词】 北京;
年雨量;
预测;
太阳活动;
厄尔尼诺;
【Key words】 Beijing, annual rainfall, forecast; solar activity; Elnino;
【Key words】 Beijing, annual rainfall, forecast; solar activity; Elnino;
【基金】 国家自然科学基金
- 【文献出处】 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版) ,JOURNAL OF BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) , 编辑部邮箱 ,1999年01期
- 【分类号】P426.613
- 【被引频次】3
- 【下载频次】52