【作者】 王彦庆； 王硕；

【Author】 Wang Yanqing;Wang Shuo;College of Economics, Harbin University Of Commerce;

【机构】 哈尔滨商业大学经济学院；

【摘要】 在全球不确定性风险叠加与国家粮食安全战略纵深推进的背景下,提升粮食流通产业链韧性已成为关乎国计民生的重大议题。本文基于2014—2023年中国30个省份(因数据缺失,未含西藏及港澳台地区)面板数据,构建粮食流通产业链韧性与数智技术评价指标体系,采用高维固定效应模型、中介效应模型、调节效应模型及异质性分析等方法展开实证研究。结果表明:数智技术对粮食流通产业链韧性具有显著提升作用,且可通过提升农业科技创新水平、降低信息成本的双路径赋能产业链韧性建设。从调节效应看,气候政策不确定性在此过程中发挥正向调节作用。异质性分析表明,提升效应存在区域差异化,在产销平衡区和东、西部地区效果显著。鉴于此,本文提出针对性政策建议,旨在为深化数智技术在粮食流通领域的精准应用、提升产业链韧性提供决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Against the backdrop of mounting global uncertainties and the deepening advancement of national food security strategies,enhancing the resilience of the grain circulation industry chain has become a critical issue concerning national economic development and people’s livelihoods. This study constructs an evaluation framework for the resilience of China’s grain distribution industry chain and digital-intelligent technologies using panel data from 30 provinces(Due to the lack of data, the statistical data mentioned here do not include the Xizang Autonomous Region, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province.) between 2014 and 2023. Empirical analysis employs high-dimensional fixed-effects models, mediation models, moderation models, and heterogeneity-of-effects analysis. Results indicate that digital and intelligent technologies significantly enhance the resilience of the grain distribution industry chain, empowering resilience-building through dual pathways: elevating agricultural technological innovation levels and reducing information costs. Regarding moderation effects,climate policy uncertainty exerts a positive moderating influence in this process. Heterogeneity analysis reveals regional variations in the enhancement effect, with significant impacts observed in production-consumption balanced regions and eastern/western areas.Accordingly, this study proposes targeted policy recommendations to deepen the precise application of digital and intelligent technologies in grain circulation and strengthen supply chain resilience, providing evidence-based decision-making references.更多还原