【作者】 王颢然； 王洪斌； 高翔； 肖建华；

【Author】 Wang Hao-ran;Wang Hong-bin;Xiang Gao;Xiao Jianhua;College of Veterinary Medicine,Northeast Agricultural University,Heilongjiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis and Comparative Medicine of Animal Diseases;

【机构】 东北农业大学动物医学学院,黑龙江省动物疾病致病机制与比较医学重点实验室；

【摘要】 (目的)传染病风险的有效可视化对于制定高效的预防和控制策略至关重要。然而,主流模型在目标区域中由于缺乏可靠数据,其效能受到限制,尤其是在应对新发或再发传染病时尤为明显。此外,这些模型通常未能根据"同一健康"概念整合当地疾病相关的风险因素,导致预测不准确。因此,在没有可靠数据的情况下,准确评估传染病风险是极具挑战的。(方法)这项研究介绍了SpatMCDA,一个创新的R软件包,旨在通过空间多准则决策分析(MCDA)评估传染病风险区域。SpatMCDA围绕六个核心建模步骤进行构建:标准化风险因素、确定因素权重、构建风险地图、进行单因素敏感性分析(OAT)、计算绝对变化率均值(MACRs)以及进行不确定性分析。(结果)通过研究中国西尼罗河病毒(WNV)的案例,本研究展示了SpatMCDA在缺乏可靠疫情数据的情况下识别疾病传播风险的实用性。评估确定了中国西北部、东部和南部的WNV风险区域。(结论)通过整合空间和流行病学数据,SpatMCDA在数据有限的情况下增强了传染病风险评估。其在利用可用数据进行准确风险映射的效率以及在权衡各种风险因素方面的适应性使得分析更加定制化。该工具提升了公共卫生策略,有助于全球健康安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 Effective visualization of infectious disease risks is crucial for the development of efficient prevention and control strategies.However,the efficacy of mainstream models is hindered by a scarcity of reliable data in target areas,a situation that is particularly acute when dealing with emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases.Additionally,these models typically fail to integrate local disease-related risk factors in line with the "One Health" concept,resulting in inaccurate predictions.Consequently,accurately assessing infectious disease risks without reliable data is challenging.This study introduces SpatMCDA,an innovative R package designed to assess infectious disease risk areas through spatial multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA).SpatMCDA is structured around six core modeling steps:standardizing risk factors,determining factor weights,constructing risk maps,performing One-At-a-Time(OAT) sensitivity analysis,calculating the Mean of Absolute Change Rates(MACRs),and conducting an uncertainty analysis.By examining the case of West Nile virus(WNV) in China,this study illustrates how SpatMCDA can be useful in identifying disease transmission risks in the absence of reliable outbreak data.The assessment identified areas at risk for WNV for WNV in northwestern,eastern,and southern China.By integrating spatial and epidemiological data,SpatMCDA enhances infectious diseases risk assessment in situations where data are limited.Its efficiency in using available data for accurate risk mapping and adaptability in weighting various risk factors enables tailored analyses.This tool enhances public health strategies,contributing to global health security.更多还原