【作者】 姜晋； 李思涵； 李小萌； 陈清华；

【Author】 JIANG Jin;LI Sihan;LI Xiaomeng;CHEN Qinghua;BNU Business School, Beijing Normal University;School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University;

【机构】 北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院； 北京师范大学系统科学学院；

【摘要】 人口规模的发展和人口的流动是社会经济中的重要问题。中国是世界人口大国,具有规模巨大且快速增长的流动人口。随着经济社会的不断发展,中国人口流动的模式也在不断发生着变化。中国提出的共建"一带一路"倡议是面向世界,构建人类命运共同体的具体实践,也是拉动中国内需、优化资源结构配置、推进经济转型、升级的巨大驱动力。为更好地弄清近期国内人口迁移的基本情况,本文首先通过对中国31个省级行政区的第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据进行适当的横向(不同区域)和纵向(不同时间)比较分析,然后从潜在移民者的个体行为出发,利用改进的多边移民模型分析"一带一路"倡议背景下全国人口流动的模式及演变规律。通过研究发现,相比于跨省流动,人们更加倾向于近距离迁移,省份内部的人口迁移活动呈现逐渐增强的趋势。跨省移动中,北京、上海、广东、浙江这些省市的对移民者的"吸引力"呈现相对下降趋势。研究关注"一带一路"沿线18个省市在倡议提出前后迁移特征(迁移流量、迁移成本、迁移障碍)的变化,发现"一带一路"倡议实施前后中国人口迁移的不均衡态势发生变化——各区域差异化减小。通过回归,确认影响中国省际间迁移成本的基本要素主要包括迁出地年末各地区基本医疗保险参保人数、迁出地人均工资、迁入地落户门槛指数、迁出地人类发展指数值、迁出地教育指数、迁入地人均GDP、省际间距离、迁入地人均工资、迁出地少数民族人口占比、迁入地进出口总额、迁入地人类发展指数值、迁入地住宅商品房房价、迁入地少数民族人口占比和迁出地人均GDP共同解释省际间迁移成本的67.4%,且成本的数值大小受迁入地影响比重更大,该结果可以为中国在推进"一带一路"倡议过程中制定合理的人口政策、协调管理各区域劳动力配置提供重要基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, more and more people have migrated from western and central China to the eastern coastal cities. The attraction of Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang for population migration has been increasing, gradually forming a hot spot attraction pattern of domestic population migration from most regions to very few regions. There is a certain trend of polarization in labor flow. In the 13th Five-Year Plan, it is proposed to coordinate the regional equalization and productive effectiveness of all resources, which also includes the optimal guidance and administrative coordination of population resources. The Belt and Road Initiative is a practical implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan. The Belt and Road Initiative has been implemented for many years and has had a certain impact on the allocation of labor resources in China. The allocation of labor resources and population mobility are closely related, and thus the pattern of population mobility in China is gradually evolving. Based on the population data of the sixth and seventh national censuses of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China, this paper conducts a comparative analysis in time and space. In the study, we particularly focus on the changes in the scale of population mobility in 18 provinces and cities along the Belt and Road before and after the initiative was proposed. We analyze the patterns and evolution of national population movements in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative by using an improved multilateral migration model from the perspective of the individual behavior of potential migrants. We reveal that intra-provincial migration is becoming more dominant than inter-provincial migration, and that intra-provincial migration is gradually increasing. It reveals that the attractiveness of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Zhejiang to migrants is currently on a relative decline. It demonstrated that the imbalance of population migration in China changed before and after the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the regional variations decreased. The regression analysis shows that the basic factors influencing the cost of China’s inter-provincial mobility include HDI in the origin province, the proportion of the ethnic minority population in the origin province, the total import and export volume in the origin province, the population in the origin province, and the number of participants in the basic medical insurance at the end of the year in the origin province, CPI in the origin province, GDP in the origin province, education index in the origin province, number of beds in health institutions in the origin province, housing prices of commercial housing in the origin province, labor force in the destination province, labor force participation rate in the destination province,, which together explain 67.4% of the cost. Finally, the article reveals the different forces driving migration hotspots in provinces along the Belt and Road, which provides a new train of thought for China to formulate a reasonable population policy and coordinate the management of labor allocation across regions in the process of promoting the Belt and Road Initiative.更多还原