【作者】 胡甚平； 谢莹； 张欣欣； 江帅； 席永涛；

【Author】 HU Shenping;XIE Ying;ZHANG Xinxin;JIANG Shuai;XI Yongtao;Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University;

【机构】 上海海事大学商船学院；

【摘要】 为研究船员不安全行为因子间的不确定性关联特征,运用关联规则对船员的不安全行为进行支持度和关联度评估。考虑到船员不安全行为表现的复杂性和不确定性,对船舶航行事故中船员的不安全行为进行辨识,并提出船员不安全行为的基本组成和关联因素。引入FP-Growth优化算法,分析船员的不安全行为关联规则。结合某港港口水域安全事故数据库,通过关联的置信度和支持度分析,揭示船员不安全行为致因事故路径。应用结果表明,船员不安全行为导致事故发生的主要路径为:瞭望疏忽→安全航速失误→危险判断过失→避让行动不当→应急操作不当;自然环境和交通密度对船员安全行为的产生具有较强的规则关联性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the uncertain correlation characteristics between the crew’s unsafe behavior factors, the association rules are used to evaluate the support and correlation of the crew’s unsafe behavior. Taking into account the complexity and uncertainty of the unsafe behavior of the crew, the unsafe behavior of the crew in the ship navigation accident is identified, and the basic composition and related factors of the unsafe behavior of the crew are proposed. Introduce the FP-Growth optimization algorithm to analyze the association rules of crew members’ unsafe behavior. Combined with a port water area safety accident database, through the associated confidence and support analysis, it reveals the accident path caused by the crew’s unsafe behavior. The application results show that the main path of accidents caused by crew’s unsafe behavior are neglect of lookout → error of safe speed → error of hazard judgment → improper avoidance action → improper emergency operation; the natural environment and traffic density have strong rule relevance to the generation of crew safety behavior.更多还原