【作者】 郝汉； 刘淳； 庞舜之； 刘庆；

【Author】 Hao Han;Liu Chun;Pang Shunzhi;Liu Qing;School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University;

【机构】 清华大学经济管理学院；

【摘要】 影响分析师预测准确性的因素是学界和业界广泛关注的重要话题。尽管许多实证研究发现分析师在欧美市场中存在着"本地优势",但少有研究关注到中国分析师是否具有本地优势,同时,很少研究深入探索本地优势现象形成的深层原因。本文以在2000-2020年间对美股上市的中国概念股进行盈余预测的所有1243名分析师为样本,手动收集了他们的工作地点和文化背景信息。通过研究发现中国分析师在中概股预测中具有本地优势,而这种本地优势的来源于不是传统文献中认为的由地理距离带来的"本地工作优势",而是来源于个体主观的"本地文化优势"。此外,本文还进一步将数据拓展到了全球资本市场,在美股、港股和全球其他资本市场中均发现了不同程度的本地优势现象。本文的研究结果对于正确认识中国概念股公司的特质以及中国分析师在资本市场中的作用,具有重要的理论与现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 What factors affect the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts is an essential topic of widespread concern both in academia and industry.Although empirical studies have provided important insights into local analyst advantage on American and European markets,little is known about whether Chinese analysts can make better forecasts on local firms listed overseas.At the same time,few studies have explored the underlying reasons for the formation of local advantage.This paper uses manually collected data of all 1,243 analysts who have made earnings forecasts on Chinese Concept Firms listed on U.S.stock exchanges from 2000 to 2020,and their working places and cultural backgrounds.We find that Chinese analysts have a local advantage in forecasting China Concept Firms while the local advantage comes from "local cultural advantage" rather than "geographical advantage".Furthermore,this paper further expands the data to the global stock markets and finds that Chinese analysts have local advantages of different degrees in the U.S.,China’s Hong Kong,and other global markets.The research results of this paper have important theoretical and practical significance for correctly understanding the characteristics of Chinese Concept Firms and the role of Chinese analysts in the capital market.更多还原