【作者】 何亮； 李卫新； 徐海燕；

【Author】 Liang He;Weixin Li;Haiyan Xu;School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics;

【机构】 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院；

【摘要】 传统电商与社交电商关于市场份额的争夺愈发激烈,其激起了电商行业中数次的不正当冲突,其中以淘宝与拼多多间的博弈最具代表性。由于拼多多不存在资源两难配置和错配境遇,其对任一市场份额的抢占均是有利的;淘宝应对拼多多崛起的不及时使得其采取的策略摇摆不定,主要表现在对拼多多低价策略同化和自我资源优化为主的两难选择,其偏好具有不确定性。这不仅干扰了双方的市场份额争夺,更恶化了日趋重复业务范围的冲突格局。政府为规避电商行业不正当竞争而出台的《电商法》,在电商行业起到划时代的作用,出台前后的不同阶段冲突格局变化巨大。本文通过冲突决策者的识别,不确定偏好的分析、确定,构建两阶段的冲突分析图模型,从四种稳定状态出发寻求淘宝不确定偏好在不同阶段下的全局均衡解,通过冲突演化过程拓展了冲突图模型的适用性,为电商行业的良性发展提供了可行的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The competition for market share between traditional e-commerce and social e-commerce is increasingly fierce, which has aroused several unfair conflicts in the e-commerce industry, among which the game between Taobao and pinduoduo is the most representative. Because there is no resource dilemma and mismatch for pinduoduo, it is advantageous to seize any market share; Taobao’s untimely response to the rise of pinduoduo makes its strategy swing, which is mainly manifested in the dilemma of using pinduoduo’s low price strategy to seize market share and resource optimization. Taobao’s preference is uncertain. It has disturbed the aggressive market share competition between the two sides and worsened the conflict pattern of increasingly repeated business scope. The " E-commerce Law of the People’s Republic of China" issued by the government to avoid unfair competition in the e-commerce industry and plays an epoch-making role in the e-commerce industry. Therefore, evolution of the two-stage conflict is very important.In this paper, through identifying of conflict decision-makers, the analysis and determination of uncertain preference, a two-stage GMCR model is constructed, and the equilibrium solution of Taobao’s uncertain preference in different stages is sought from four stable states. The applicability of the GMCR is expanded through the conflict evolution process, which provides a feasible reference for the benign development of e-commerce industry.更多还原