【作者】 张烨锋； 李贤良； 王容仁； 薛惠元； 李圣日； 张琪轩； 王天姿； 万骏；

【Author】 Zhang Yefeng;Li Xianliang;Wang Rongren;Xue Huiyuan;Li Shengri;Zhang Qixuan;Wang Tianzi;Wan Jun;School of Public health, Medical Department,Soochow University;Environmental Protection and Emergency Management Center on Qinshan District;School of Radiation Medicine and Protection, Medical Department, Soochow University;

【机构】 苏州大学医学部公共卫生学院； 秦山地区环保与应急中心； 苏州大学医学部放射卫生与防护学院；

【摘要】 氚是核电站液态放射性流出物中排放量最大的核素,在环境中的含量水平也越来越受到公众的重视。为了探究秦山核电站周围海域中氚含量变化,结合海水和水产品的监测数据,分析介质中氚含量的分布与联系,并应用自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测短期海水和生物中的氚活度浓度。结果表明:2000—2017年秦山核电基地周围海水中氚的活度浓度为<1.3～10.4Bq/L,鲻鱼中氚的活度浓度为<1.0～2.9 Bq/kg,各地牡蛎中的浓度为<1.1～8.2Bq/kg。运行前海水、鲻鱼、牡蛎的调查值为1.3 Bq/L、0.6 Bq/kg、0.8 Bq/kg,除部分样品中氚含量较高外,整体放射性水平在本底值范围波动,没有明显蓄积的现象。根据回归分析结果,2009—2015年毛灰山和杨柳山牡蛎中氚的活度浓度随一期和三期排水口海水中氚含量的改变而改变,两者具有较高的相关性。此外,ARIMA模型对鲻鱼和海水的拟合和预测效果较好,预测值和实际值相对误差较小,能够为核电站周围环境质量的监督管理提供参考依据和预警。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tritium is the largest radionuclide in liquid radioactive effluent from nuclear power plants, and its level in the environment has attracted increasing attention from the public.In the study,the monitoring data of seawater and aquatic products were offered to explore the changes of tritium content in the sea area around Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, analyze the distribution and relationship of tritium content in the medium.What’s more,the autoregressive moving average model(ARIMA)was also used to predict tritium activity concentrations in short-term seawater and organisms.The results showed that the range of tritium activity concentrations in seawater, mullet, and oysters around the Qinshan Nuclear Power Base from 2000 to 2017 were<1.3-10.4 Bq/L,<1.0-2.9 Bq/kg, and<1.1-8.2 Bq/kg, respectively.The survey values of seawater, mullet and oyster before nuclear power operation are 1.3 Bq/L, 0.6 Bq/kg, 0.8 Bq/kg.Except for the higher tritium content in some samples,the overall radioactivity level fluctuates within the background range, and there is no obvious accumulation.According to the results of regression analysis, the activity concentration of tritium in the oysters of Maohuishan and Yangliushan from 2009 to 2015 changed with the changes of the tritium content in the seawater at the first and third drainage outlet, and the they have a high correlation.In addition, the ARIMA model has a good fit and prediction effect on mullet and seawater, and the relative error between the predicted value and the actual value is relatively small, which can provide reference basis and early warning for the supervision and management of environmental quality around nuclear power plants.更多还原