【作者】 张莹； 王露莎； 王西京； 李伟；

【Author】 Ying Zhang;Lusha Wang;Xijing Wang;Wei Li;Key Laboratory for Spacecraft In-Orbit Fault Diagnosis and Maintenance;China Xi’an Satellite Control Center;Northwestern Polytechnical University;

【机构】 航天器在轨故障诊断与维修重点实验室； 西安卫星测控中心； 西北工业大学航天学院；

【摘要】 随着人类航天任务的增多,大量火箭的箭体及其碎片、失效的卫星等空间碎片的出现,使得空间目标间碰撞概率不断增加。为了避免在轨航天器与其他空间目标碰撞,在必要时刻,航天器需要采取主动的轨道机动规避碰撞风险。同时,在航天器日常的轨道调整或轨道保持前,也需要进行碰撞预警分析,避免轨道控制过程中或控制后发生碰撞。解决此类问题,需要研究轨道控制误差对碰撞概率的影响。本文首先基于协方差分析描述函数法建立轨控误差的传播模型,其次在现有的二维碰撞概率计算方法的基础上,进一步给出了非线性相对运动下空间目标三维碰撞概率的计算方法,提高了碰撞概率的计算精度,最后讨论了轨控误差对碰撞概率的影响。通过具体的碰撞事件对非线性方法进行仿真验证表明,随着轨控误差对位置、速度误差传播影响增大,碰撞概率会加大,其中引入推力方位角偏差对碰撞概率影响最大,引入推力大小偏差对碰撞概率的影响次之,推力高低角偏差的引入对碰撞概率影响最小。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increase of human space missions, the emergence of a large number of rockets and their debris, the invalid satellites and other space debris, the collision probability between space targets is increasing. In order to avoid the collision of the orbiting spacecraft with other space targets, the spacecraft needs to take active orbital maneuvers to avoid the collision risk when necessary. At the same time, before the orbit maneuver or track maintenance of the spacecraft, collision early warning analysis is also needed to avoid collision during or after the satellite control. To solve such problems, it is necessary to study the influence of orbital control errors on the collision probability. In this paper, based on the Covariance Analysis Describing function technique, the propagation model of orbital error is established. Secondly, based on the existing two-dimensional collision probability calculation method, the calculation method of the three-dimensional collision probability of space target under nonlinear relative motion is given. The calculation accuracy of collision probability is improved. Finally, the influence of orbital error on collision probability is discussed. The simulation results of the nonlinear method show that the influence of the orbital error on the position and velocity error propagation increases, and the collision probability increases. The thrust azimuth deviation has the greatest influence on the collision probability, and the thrust is introduced. The influence of the thrust magnitude deviation on the collision probability is second, and the introduction of the elevation angle deviation has the least influence on the collision probability.更多还原