【作者】 钟昊； 王玲； 马万经；

【Author】 Hao Zhong;Ling Wang;Wanjing Ma;The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering,Ministry of Education;

【机构】 同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室；

【摘要】 随着大数据、云计算等新兴技术的推广,智能网联汽车(CAV)获得快速发展,为驾驶过程中人为错误的减少带来可能。CAV技术能带来避碰效益得到了学者们认同,然而他们对于CAV避碰效益大小存在争议。为客观评估CAV技术避碰效益,本研究使用荟萃分析评估了8种最重要的CAV技术。这种方法是以同一课题的多项独立研究的结果为研究对象,在严格设计的基础上,运用适当的统计学方法对多个研究结果进行系统、客观、定量的综合分析。首先,检索出912篇与CAV技术相关的研究,筛选得到73篇避碰效益相关文献。在荟萃分析中,利用随机效应模型合并效应量,通过漏斗图检验发表偏倚,并采用剪补法进行调整,客观全面地评估各技术的避碰效益。然后,根据7个国家的事故数据,计算得到综合避碰效益和技术优势分布。结果表明,如果全部实施8种CAV技术,能够平均减少37.87%的事故,其中印度减少最多,为48.89%;另外,不同国家对于CAV技术的开发应有不同侧重,中国应优先开发车道变换警告技术和行人碰撞警告技术。这可以客观评估CAV综合安全效益,帮助不同国家了解技术优势分布,决定发展战略,并提高公众对CAV的接受程度。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the promotion of emerging technologies such as big data and cloud computing,the connected and automated vehicles(CAV) have achieved rapid development,which brings about the possibility of human error reduction in driving.The safety benefit of CAV technologies is commonly accepted by researchers.However,how much crashes can be reduced because of CAV technologies cannot reach a same conclusion.This research used meta-analysis to evaluate the safety benefits of eight CAV technologies.First,73 literatures were screened out from 912 literatures related to CAV technologies.The random effect model was used to combine effect size,and the publication bias was tested by funnel plot,and the trim-and-fill method was used for adjustment,so as to objectively and comprehensively evaluate the safety benefits of each technology.Then,according to the accident data of seven counties,the comprehensive safety benefits and distribution of safety benefits of the above technologies were obtained respectively.The results show that if all of technologies were implemented,the average number of accidents could be reduced by 37.87%,with India reducing most by 48.89%.Additionally,different countries should give different priorities to CAV technologies,among them China should give priority to the development of lane change warning and pedestrian collision warning applications.These can evaluate the CAV comprehensive safety benefit,help different countries to understand the distribution of CAV safety benefits and decide their development strategies,and improve public acceptance.更多还原