【作者】 安紫菁； 许映秋； 谈英姿；

【Author】 AN Zi-jing;XU Ying-qiu;TAN Ying-zi;Mechanical College of Southeast University;Automation Collegeof Southeast University;

【机构】 东南大学机械工程学院； 东南大学自动化学院；

【摘要】 本文以城市高发灾害——城市火灾为研究对象,基于火灾演化过程所具有的马尔可夫特性,改进元胞自动机方法,并从时间和空间维度对城市火灾事件建立态势推演模型;其中,自然环境下的态势推演结果可表征事件的自然发展方向,应急干预下的态势推演结果可表征救援方案的预计效果,为应急指挥者调整应对策略提供有效支持。结果表明,该推演模型能在模拟真实情境基础上表达火灾蔓延趋势,帮助火灾救援,减轻事件危害。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,urban fires,which are most frequent anddangerous disaster,were taken as the research object.Based on the Markov characteristics of fire evolution process,the cellular automata method was improved,and the situation deduction models of urban fire events were established from time and space dimensionsAmong them,the situation deduction results under the natural environment could represent the natural development direction of the event,and the situation deduction results under the emergency intervention could represent the effect of the rescue plan,which provided effective support for emergency commanders to adjust their coping strategies.The results show that the model can simulate the real situation and express the fire spreading trend,which can help the fire rescue and reduce the event hazard.更多还原