【作者】 陈军飞； 陈琳； 刘黎明； 支彦玲；

【Author】 CHEN Jun-fei;CHEN Lin;LIU Li-ming;ZHI Yan-ling;Business School Hohai University;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai University;

【机构】 河海大学商学院； 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室；

【摘要】 资源安全问题已成为制约我国经济可持续发展的瓶颈。本文分析了水资源、能源和粮食复杂系统相互作用的机理及耦合关系,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型建立了区域水资源-能源-粮食(WEF)系统安全评价指标体系;构建了基于熵权法和通用灰色预测模型(CGPM)的水资源-能源-粮食系统安全综合评价及预测模型。以我国典型区域内蒙古为例,对其2007-2016年的水资源-能源-粮食系统安全进行综合评价并对未来5年的水资源-能源-粮食系统安全水平进行预测。结果表明:内蒙古2007—2016年WEF系统安全水平从2007—2009年较为稳定,2009—2010年明显下滑,之后安全水平呈平稳上升趋势;对内蒙古WEF系统安全综合指数进行预测,结果显示,2017—2021内蒙古WEF系统安全水平持续改善。最后,结合内蒙古实际,提出了加强水资源-能源-粮食管理的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The problem of resource safety has become a bottleneck that restricts the sustainable development of China’ s economy.This paper constructed water-energy-food system safety evaluation indices according to Pressure-StateResponse(PSR) method based on the understanding of the mutual restriction and coupling relationship of water,energy and food;then established the comprehensive evaluation model of water-energy-food system based on entropy weight and the general gray predict model(CGPM).Next,this paper took Inner Mongolia of China as an example and comprehensively evaluated water-energy-food system safety in Inner Mongolia from 2007 to 2016.And the safeties of Inner Mongolia’ s water-energy-food system were predicted in the next five years.The results show that the water-energyfood system safety of Inner Mongolia were relatively stable from 2007 to 2009,declined sharply from 2009 to 2010,and then showed a steady upward trend.After predicting the comprehensive index of water-energy-food safety in Inner Mongolia,the results show that the safety of water-energy-food system in Inner Mongolia is continuously improved from2017 to 2021.Finally,combined with the reality of Inner Mongolia,the recommendations for strengthening waterenergy-food management were put forward.更多还原