【作者】 陈宗遒； 陆剑云； 李铁钢； 李晓宁； 陈纯； 李美霞； 杨智聪；

【Author】 zong-qiu Chen;jian-yun LU;tie-gang LI;xiao-ning LI;chun CHEN;mei-xia LI;zhi-cong YANG;Department of Control of Infectious Diseases,Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Department of Disinfection and vector control,Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention;

【机构】 广州市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科； 广州市疾病预防控制中心消毒杀虫科； 广州市疾病预防控制中心中心；

【摘要】 目的:了解广州市托幼儿童手足口病流行特征,利用ARIMAX模型评估广州市2015年洗手干预对5岁以下托幼儿童手足口病发病的干预效果,为今后开展健康教育与健康促进提供参考依据。方法:2015年对全市托幼机构开展了以"洗手干预"为主题的健康干预,收集并分析2008-2015年间广州手足口病5岁以下病例发病特征以及同期气象数据,结合洗手干预因素,建立ARIMAX模型,以评价干预因素对手足口病发病的影响。结果:2008年以来手足口病例数逐年上升,5岁以下病例占95.16%(396589/416744),男女比为1.62:1。ARIMAX模型结果显示气压(β=-2.44,p=0.001)、相对湿度(β=2.49,p=0.017)和干预(β=-180.18,p=0.002)对一周后的手足口发病有影响。AIC和RMSE分别为4102.34和198.65。结论:5岁以下儿童是广州市手足口病高发人群,5-7月为我市5岁以下托幼儿童手足口病的发病高峰,控制相对湿度和气压的情况下,洗手干预能有效降低1周后的手足口病发病数,建议分别在5月和9月开展洗手干预活动,进一步提高防病效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease and evaluate the effect of hand wash intervention on the incidence of HFMD in the children under 5 years old in Guangzhou by ARIMAX model in order to improve the health education and intervention.Methods:The hand wash intervention was implemented in 2015 in Guangzhou.The data of HFMD epidemic and meteorological data in Guangzhou city from 2012 to 2015 were collected and the descriptive epidemiology was conducted.The ARIMAX model was built,by R(version 3.2.2)software,added hand-wash intervention factor and meteorological data,to evaluate the effect of hand-wash intervention on the epidemic of HFMD.Results:Since 2008,HFMD cases increased year by year.95.16% cases(396589/416744)was below 5 years old.The sex ratio was 1.62 to 1.The ARIMAX model showed that cases of HFMD weekly was statistically associated with the pressure(β=-2.44,p=0.001),the relative humidity(β=2.49,p=0.017)and hand-wash intervention before lweek(β=-180.18,p=0.002).AIC and RMSE was 4102.34 and 198.65.Conclusion:Children under 5 years old was the high-risk group of HFMD in Guangzhou city.The incidence peak of HFMD was from May to July.Under the condition of pressure and relative humidity factor,hand-wash intervention can reduce the epidemic of HFMD in one week later.It is recommended to carry out hand washing health education and promotion several times a year,e.g.May and September.更多还原