【作者】 高超；

【Author】 Gao Chao;College of Territorial Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University;State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences;

【机构】 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院； 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室；

【摘要】 根据淮河流域1958～2007年观测气温、降水量、径流量资料和NCAR-CCM3、CS1RO_MK3和ECHAM5/MP1-OM3个气候模式数据对该流域气候变化和淮河干流径流量进行分析研究。结果表明:①淮河流域平均气温,在20世纪90年代以前以降温为主,90年代中后期增温显著;季节上,春秋两季气温呈现波动增加趋势,冬季增暖速率较高,夏季则呈下降趋势;年降水量1958～2007年无突变性的增加或减少趋势,季节变化上,流域夏季降水量变幅较大。②预估表明,淮河流域未来气温增幅明显,2011～2060年间三模式平均增温相对1961～1990年距平达2.61℃,降水相对1961～1990年距平变幅达-84.6至168.0mm之间波动,相对1958～2007年观测期淮河径流量没有明显变化,2011～2060年淮河径流量可能存在上升趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on observed temperature and precipitation data from 1958 to 2000 and climate projection from 2011 to2060 by NCAR-CCM3,CSIRO_MK3 and ECHAM5/MPI-OM,changing tendencies of annual temperature,annual precipitation and runoff in Huaihe basin were analyzed.The results showed that ① annual temperature displayed a relatively significant decreasing trend before 19 90 s and then,increasing.Seasonal temperature would rise most significantly in winter and most decreasing in summer;Annual precipitation show no significant change trend from 1958 to 2007 and had a relatively significant change in summer.②Comparing with climate from 1961 to 1990.temperature would increased to 2.61℃ at 2060 s and precipitation would change between-84.6 mm and 168.0 mm during 2011-2060 under the three models.Comparing with no tread in 1958-2007.the interannual fluctuations cover an increasing streamflow trend under the three models in 2011 — 2060.更多还原