【作者】 葛真； 贾绍凤； 李大乐；

【Author】 Ge Zhen;Jia Shaofeng;Li Dale;College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University;Institute of Geographic sciences and Natural Resources Research;Administrative Bureau of Daqing River of Hebei Province and Administrative Bureau of Baiyang dian Loke of Hekei Province;

【机构】 首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院； 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所； 河北省大清河河务管理处河北省白洋淀管理处；

【摘要】 河北省既是中国粮食的主要产区,同时又是水资源短缺问题最突出的省份之一。本文通过对河北省1985～2007年的粮食产量与农业劳动人口、粮食作物播种面积、农业用水量等10个变量进行主成分和回归分析,得出河北省的农业用水量对粮食产量的影响并不显著的结论。对粮食产量有显著影响的是粮食价格、粮食作物种植面积、化肥施用量、农业机械总动力以及有效灌溉面积。这一研究结论可以加深对水资源短缺与粮食安全关系的认识。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hebei province is the leading grain producing area of China,also is one of the most visible provinces of water resource shortage.Correlation and regression analysis methods were used to study the relationship between grain yield and other 10 relative variables.Based on historical statistical data,this paper concluded that the decreasing agricultural water use of Hebei province had not significantly influenced its grain yield,while grain yield was mainly relied on grain sown area,effective irrigation area,consumption of chemical fertilizer,total power of agricultural machinery,grain price index and price index of means of agricultural production.This research conclusion can help us deeply understand relationship between water resource shortage and food security.更多还原