【作者】 陈守东； 孙彦林；

【Author】 CHEN Shou-dong;SUN Yan-lin;

【机构】 吉林大学数量经济研究中心； 吉林大学商学院；

【摘要】 本文研究发现:金融周期波动变量包含了产出缺口的预测信息,其与经济不确定性对产出缺口均表现出明显的非线性区制时变特征;中国产出缺口自发性表现出明显的顺周期性质,宏观调控在要素投入与资源利用过程中十分必要;消费是中国经济稳定增长的重要着力点;中国的真实失业率低于自然失业率,物价的小幅回升与积极财政政策均有利于经济稳定增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study of this paper shows that the variables of fluctuation in financial cycle contain the information of forecasting output gap,and they as well as the economic uncertainty show obvious non-linear time-varying characteristics in output gap;the spontaneity of China’s output gap is obviously pro-cyclical,and the macro-control is necessary in the process of factor input and resource utilization;the consumption is an important power to promote the steady growth of China’s economy;the China’s real unemployment rate is lower than the natural unemployment rate,and the slight increase in price and active fiscal policy are conducive to the steady economic growth.更多还原