【作者】 尚可政； 张楠； 刘继峰； 尚子溦；

【Author】 Kezheng Shang;Nan Zhang;Jifeng Liu;Ziwei Shang;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University;Xi’an Meteorological Service;Xi’an Centers for Disease Control;Lanzhou Meteorological Service;

【机构】 兰州大学大气科学学院； 西安市气象局； 西安市疾病预防控制中心； 兰州市气象局；

【摘要】 气象条件对心脑血管疾病的影响已受越来越多的关注。本文利用西安2010年1月1日~2014年12月31日逐日心脑血管疾病死亡资料和2009年12月20日至2014年12月31日连续5年间的气象资料,采用统计分析、相关分析和逐步回归方法,研究了气象因素对心脑血管病的累积及延迟效应,建立了心脑血管疾病的预报模型及气象危险指数等级标准,并进行了检验,结果表明:(1)西安地区2010-2014年心脑血管疾病死亡人数逐年递增趋势,心脑血管疾病月均死亡人数冬半年多(占54.3%),夏半年少(占45.7%);(2)日平均气温对心脑血管疾病的影响夏半年明显;气温日较差对心脑血管疾病的呈相关,且冬季和夏季比春秋明显;气压在夏季、冬季及春季对心脑血管疾病影响较为明显;风速与心脑血管疾病日死亡人数呈显著相关;湿度与心脑血管疾病死亡人数呈负相关;日照时数与心脑血管疾病,在冬春季呈负相关,夏季呈正相关。(3)经过逐步回归建立了西安全年逐月的心脑血管疾病预报模型,并进行回代检验。本文化的研究结果对预测心脑血管死亡人数具有一定的参考意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The influence of meteorological conditions on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases has received more and more attention. This paper uses daily death data of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014 in Xi’an and meteorological data from December 20, 2009 to December 31, 2014 for five consecutive years, using statistical analysis, correlation analysis and stepwise regression methods, the lag and cumulative effects of meteorological factors on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were studied, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease prediction models and meteorological risk index ranking criteria were established and tested, the results show:(1) The number of deaths from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Xi’an region has been increasing year by year from year 2010 to 2014, the monthly death toll of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was more than in winter half year(54.3%), and it was small in summer half year(45.7%).(2) The influence of daily average temperature on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is obvious in summer half year. The daily temperature difference is related to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and it is more obvious in winter and summer than in spring and autumn. Air pressure has a significant effect on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in summer, winter, and spring. The wind speed was significantly correlated with the daily deaths of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, humidity was negatively correlated with the number of deaths of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, sunshine hours and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were negatively correlated in winter and spring and positively correlated in summer.(3) After a gradual regression, Xi’an’s monthly cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease prediction model was established and tested for subsequent generations. The fitting accuracy of the monthly forecasting model is above 70 % for all months except in August, which has certain reference value for reducing the death toll of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.更多还原