【作者】 叶金印； 张锦堂； 黄勇； 安晶晶； 叶正阳；

【Author】 YE Jinyin;ZHANG Jintang;HUANG Yong;AN Jingjing;YE Zhengyang;Anhui Meteorological Observatory;Anhui Key Lab of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing;Anhui Hydrology Bureau;College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;

【机构】 安徽省气象台； 安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室； 安徽省水文局； 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院；

【摘要】 对降水预报进行性能评估及应用对策研究可以更好地发挥降水预报在水库调度中的决策支持作用。基于大别山库区近10a汛期(2006年至2016年5月1日—9月30日)24-168h共7个预见期降水预报和地面降水观测资料,采用正确率、TS评分、概率统计、ROC曲线以及CTS等方法评估大别山库区降水预报性能,并以响洪甸水库为重点研究区域分析降水预报在水库调度中的应用对策。结果表明:1)大别山库区降水预报性能随预见期缩短逐步提升;降水预报总体性能随降水强度增加呈下降趋势;2)降水预报与实况量级整体相差不大,存在过度预报现象且对强降水预报能力不足,但对于强降水过程仍有较好的指示意义。当预报有降水过程时,水库调度要关注降水量级预报的偏差。3)长预见期降水预报不确定性大,短预见期降水预报可信度较大,尤其是短预见期的强降水过程以及转折性天气过程预报性能相对于长预见期有提高明显;在具体应用时要长中短预见期预报相结合,并根据最新降水预报进行水库调度方案调整。分析结果表明降水预报可为水库调度提供有价值的决策支持信息。更多还原

【Abstract】 The evaluation of precipitation forecasts and corresponding researches related to application countermeasures can optimize the role of precipitation forecasts in the reservoirs regulation. Based on the precipitation forecasts with 7 lead times(24-168 h) and the observation precipitation data in flood season during 2006-2016, evaluation methods(e.g. Percentage Correct,Threat Score, Probability Statistics, ROC curve, CTS et al.) were introduced to estimate the precipitation prediction skill. Afterwards, we analyzed the application countermeasures for the reservoirs regulation in Dabie Mountain area, especiatlly for Xianghongdian reservoir. The results indicate that: 1. The precipitation forecast performance is improved as the lead time shortened, but getting worse with the intensification of rainfall. 2. Overall, even though the rainfall scale predictions are generally well consistent with observations, the over forecast and forecast deviation of strong precipitation are still exist. In aspect of heavy rainfall processes, precipitation forecasts are of strong indication significance. Once precipitation processes are anticipated,, the reservoirs regulation decision making should pay attention to the forecast deviation. 3.Compared to forecasts with long lead time which have great uncertainty, forecasts with short lead time are more reliable and have better performance in heavy precipitation processes and transition weather.In practical application, the combination of precipitation forecasts with different forecast periods,including the latest forecasts, are strongly suggested to be utilized to adjust the reservoirs regulation. Our statistic results prove the usability of precipitation forecast, and the research results could be valuable reference for the reservoirs regulation decision making.更多还原