【作者】 刘志有； 李慧； 徐馨怡； 朱亚楠； 王生霞；

【Author】 Liu Zhiyou;Li Hui;Xu Xinyi;Zhu Yanan;Wang Shengxia;School of Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University;State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Sciences,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences;Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences;

【机构】 新疆农业大学管理学院； 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室； 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所内陆河流生态水文重点实验室；

【摘要】 探讨新疆绿洲土地生态风险预测,揭示绿洲土地利用变化与土地生态环境演变关系,有助于优化土地利用结构实现土地可持续利用,同时为绿洲区域生态文明建设提供依据。本文整理分析2006—2015年土地、社会经济数据,从四方面构建评价指标体系,运用主成分和GM(1,1)模型,对乌鲁木齐市10年土地生态风险系数进行评价,并测算未来10年土地生态风险指数,以此来反映绿洲土地利用变化对土地生态环境造成的风险,结果显示随着社会经济的发展,绿洲土地生态风险随之提升。研究结论:①绿洲土地生态风险研究是实现绿洲土地资源可持续利用的必要措施;②绿洲土地生态风险涉及影响因素包括社会、经济、生态、土地环境等因素;③绿洲土地生态风险预测有利于获取土地生态风险,及时构建实施科学的土地生态管控。本文揭示绿洲土地生态变化特征和变化规律,有助于对区域土地生态安全服务,并有助于县级政府提出相关政策依据,为区域生态文明建设提供土地保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper discusses the change of land use and land ecological environment evolution of Xinjiang Oasis,so as to optimize the land use structure and realize sustainable land use,at the same time provide the basis for ecological civilization construction of the oasis region.In this paper,land and social economic data from 2006 to 2015 are analyzed to construct the evaluation index system from four aspects.The principal component and the GM(1,1) model are used to evaluate the land ecological risk coefficient of Urumqi in the next 10 years,and to calculate the land ecological risk index of the next 10 years,which reflects that with the development of social economy,the oasis land ecological risk increases.Conclusion;① The study on the ecological risk of oasis land is necessary to realize sustainable utilization of land resources in oasis;② The ecological risk of oasis land involves social,economic,ecological and land environment factors;③ The ecological risk prediction of oasis land is conducive to the detection of land ecological risks and timely construction of scientific land ecological control.This paper reveals the oasis land ecological characteristics and change rules,which is helpful to strengthen regional land ecological security,and provide related policy basis for the government at the county level to guarantee land security and promote regional ecological civilization.更多还原