【作者】 刘亚琳； 茅锐； 姚洋；

【Author】 Yalin Liu;Yang Yao;Rui Mao;

【机构】 北京大学国家发展研究院和中国经济研究中心； 浙江大学公共管理学院和卡特中心；

【摘要】 本文从结构转型和金融危机两个方面解释我国劳动收入占国民收入份额的U型变化趋势。在Mao and Yao(2012)构建的三部门动态一般均衡模型的基础上,本文推导出第二产业就业人数占比的倒U型变化会导致GDP中劳动收入份额的U型变化规律。数值研究显示,在不考虑2008年金融危机冲击的情况下,我国第二产业就业人数占比的转折点将发生在2020年,而劳动收入份额的转折点将推迟到2030年。当考虑2008年全球金融危机对各产业TFP增长率的影响时,分段拟合的劳动收入份额则与实际数据高度吻合。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper provides an explanation for the U-shaped trend of China’s share of labor income in national income from the perspective of economic transformation and financial crisis. Based on the three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of Mao and Yao(2012), this paper deduces that the share of industrial employment follows an inverted U-shaped curve and will lead to a U-shaped trajectory for the share of labor income. Our quantitative study shows that, without considering the impact of the financial crisis in 2008, the share of industrial employment would reach the highest point in 2020, while the share of labor income would do the same until 2030. When the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the sectoral TFP growth rates is taken into consideration, the fitted labor share becomes highly consistent with the actual data.更多还原