【作者】 宋国青；

【Author】 Guoqing SONG;National School of Development, Peking University;

【机构】 北京大学国家发展研究院；

【摘要】 <正>2016年第三季度和第四季度,我国杠杆率的增长趋缓;限购政策使得房贷增量的增长出现回落;同时地方债存量增长也出现大幅下降。房贷和政府债是影响社会融资需求的重要因素,且二者是相对外生的,其他的融资需求是跟随产生。正因为房贷增长和地方债增长二者的下降,使得杠杆率增长出现回落。通过分析,本文认为,2017年房贷市场和地方债仍然不会有大幅的上涨可能,所以社会融资需求的增长变化不大,预计总需求的增长将会以平稳为主。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the third and fourth quarter of 2016, the leverage rate grew slowly in China. The restrictions policy made the growth of house mortgage decline, while at the same time, local government debt stock growth also showed a sharp drop. Loans and government bonds are relatively exogenous, but they are important factors effecting social financing demand as well as other financing requirements. Because the mortgage growth and local government debt growth declined, both made leverage growth slowly. Through the analysis of the National School of Development Research Institute, professor Guoqing SONG argues that the mortgage market and local government debt will not rise sharply in 2017, thus, the growth of social financing demand will have little change. He expects total demand growth to remain stable throughout the coming year.更多还原