【作者】 宋胜尊； 傅小兰； 章恩友；

【Author】 Shengzun Song;Xiaolan Fu;Enyou Zhang;Institute of Psychology,Chinese Academy of Sciences;The Central Institute for Correctional Police;

【机构】 中国科学院心理研究所； 中央司法警官学院监狱学学院；

【摘要】 罪犯危险性指罪犯自杀、脱逃、行凶、暴狱、抗拒改造等行为发生的可能性、以及刑释后的再犯罪可能性。中国罪犯危险性评估研究近年来在理论研究、数据获取和分析、预测效用和实务应用、制度保障等方面取得了长足进展。①在理论研究方面,基于勒温的场论、群体动力学理论、暴力攻击双峰模型等,对罪犯的暴力危险性评估开展了实证研究;基于迪尔凯姆、凯文等的自杀理论、多重动机理论,开展罪犯自杀危险性预测研究;基于能力优先原则,并逐步结合因素论、整体论、信号检测理论等,对罪犯脱逃危险性开展预测研究。②在数据来源和数据分析方面,随着狱政管理系统、应急指挥系统、心理测试系统、劳动现场信息管理系统等不断完善,罪犯的多种数据,无论是结构化数据还是非结构化数据,为大数据预测提供了可能,有的监狱已经建立大数据平台,基于大数据驱动模型的罪犯危险性等级排序、不同类型危险性的甄别有望得到实现。③罪犯危险性评估的预测效用不断提升,随着预测工具的不断发展而提高,当前危险性评估在选择优质工具、合理配置、重新编制三个方向均得到发展,其中,对于罪犯的特质类测验、状态类测验、情景投射类测验、关键事件突发背景下的应激反应和应付方式测验,分别对应于潜在危险性、现实危险性和即时危险性评估取得了一定的效果。④在实务部门,监狱实务工作者对发生过危险行为的"典型样本",开展剖析类研究;对"顽危犯"开展"评估—干预—再评估"研究,通过"顽危犯"干预研究前、后的情绪、态度、信念、行为的对照,显示出了显著的干预效果;对狱内预谋犯罪的正确识别检验了预测的准确性。⑤在制度保障方面,司法部监狱管理局以文件的形式统筹规划全国监狱的罪犯危险性评估工作,极大地推动和保障了该项研究工作的进展。罪犯危险性评估研究对于维护监管秩序、预防刑释人员再犯罪具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The offender’s risk refers to the possibility of criminals’ suicide,escape,violence,and anti-reform in prison and the possibility of re-offending after released from prison.Research on the risk assessment of Chinese criminals has made great progress in the fields of theoretical research,data acquisition and analysis,forecasting effectiveness,practical application,and system security and so on.①In the theoretical research,based on Lewin’s field theory,group dynamics theory,violent attacks bimodal model,empirical researches on criminals of violence risk assessment were carried out;Based on the suicide theory of Durkheim,Kevin,and multiple motivation theory criminal suicide risk prediction research were carried out;based on the ability priority principle,holism theory,and signal detection theory,criminals to escape danger forecast research was carried out.② In the data sources and data analysis,with the continuous improvement of the prison management system,emergency command system,psychological testing system,and labor field information management system,various data of criminals,whether it is structured data and unstructured data,furthermore,some prisons have been established platform for large data,based on data driven model of the criminal risk ranking and screening of different types of risk based on large data is expected to be realized.③The predictive utility on offender’s risk assessment has been improved in recent years with the development of predictive tools:High quality test tools has been chosen,classical tools has been reasonable configuration,and new test tools has been developed.During these developed,personality trait and state test are used to predict potential risk and real dangers individually,furthermore,scene projection test and coping style test,stress response test are used to predict corresponding to the immediate danger degree when some key events burst,and these assessment obtained some positive results.④In practice,prison practice workers studied the typical samples of dangerous behavior.They chose "stubborn dangerous crime" sample to carry out the assessment,intervention,and of the assessment of,compared the sample’s emotion,attitude,and belief and behavior control abilities before and after intervention on.The result show that a significant intervention effect.On the other hand,some premeditated crimes in prison were found correctly by prediction based on risk assessments.⑤ In the aspect of system security,the prison administration of the Ministry of justice issued document to promote the criminals risk assessment work.It is greatly promoting and ensuring the progress of the research work.Above all,offenders’ risk assessment study for the maintenance of order regulation and prevention the reoffending in released prisoners has important theory value and practical significance.更多还原