【作者】 张鑫； 潘钱莉； 杨艳艳； 耿烽；

【Author】 Zhang Xin;Pan Qian-li;Yang Yan-yan;Geng Feng;School of Management, Hefei University of Technology;Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Ministry of Education;

【机构】 合肥工业大学管理学院； 过程优化与智能决策教育部重点实验室；

【摘要】 本文基于平滑转换回归模型(STR),应用1996到2015年的数据论证了安徽省旅游收入与经济增长的动态关系。研究表明,旅游收入与经济增长的关系是线性与非线性并存。当旅游收入增长率在[6.42636%,15.83099%]区间内时,旅游收入与经济增长呈线性关系,此时旅游收入每变动1%,将引起经济增长变动0.04692%,当旅游收入增长率在[6.42636%,15.83099%]区间外时,旅游收入与经济增长呈非线性关系,旅游收入每变动1%,将引起经济增长变动0.05018%,也说明了不管旅游收入水平在高速增长阶段还是低速增长阶段,对经济增长都产生正向效应。同时模型稳健性检验结果也说明了所估计的非线性模型具有良好的动态特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on Smooth Transition Regression Model, this paper indicates the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth by the data during 1996 to 2015 of Anhui province.The resualts show that relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth is the coexistence of linear and nonlinear,When tourism revenue growth in [6.42636%, 15.83099%],the relationship of tourism revenues and economic growth is linear, then every 1% change in tourism revenues, economic growth will change in 0.04692%, When tourism revenue growth in [6.42636%, 15.83099%] outside, the relationship of tourism revenues and economic growth is nonlinear, tourism revenue each 1% change will lead to changes in economic growth with 0.05018%, And no matter the level of tourism revenues in the high growth phase or low growth phase,Tourism revenues have a positive effect to economic growth. At the same time the model robustness test results also shows the estimated nonlinear model has good dynamic characteristics.更多还原