【作者】 刘攀； 冯茂源； 张晓琪； 张玮；

【Author】 Liu Pan;Feng Maoyuan;Zhang Xiaoqi;Zhang Wei;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Water resources safety and security cooperation innovation center of Hubei Province,Wuhan University;

【机构】 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心；

【摘要】 在变化环境下传统工程水文"一致性"不复存在时,水库的调度规则需要重新编制。本文分别针对防洪调度规则及中长期水库调度规则,研究将未来预测不确定性情景(如GCM输出)应用到水库调度中,并探讨其与历史数据相融合的问题;在技术层面研究非平稳系列的优化,如调度期长度、调度目标建立等问题,以期最终实现水库调度的柔性决策。该方面的研究可为变化环境下水库自适应调度提供理论依据,具有重大的理论意义与实践价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Reservoirs need be re-operated under the changing environment,where reservoir inflows have been changing due to climate change and human inference.Two operating rules,including for real-time flood control and long-term operations,should be conducted using future inflow scenarios.The scientific goal is to better understand how to use GCM data and hydrologic output into reservoir operations and how to consider historical inflows in a changing environment.The methodological goal is to research how to determine the forecast horizon and the objective function.Reservoir operating rules can be re-derived within a risk analysis and optimization framework using a flexible and robust optimization.更多还原