【作者】 冯敏玉； 黄淑娥；

【Author】 FENG Min-yu;HUAN Shu-e;Meteorological Bureau of Nanchang;Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Research;

【机构】 江西省南昌市气象局； 江西省气象科学研究所；

【摘要】 为更好的预测早稻产量,本文统计分析了1994-2010年南昌早稻生长期间的气象因子及早稻产量资料,通过5年滑动平均和多元线性回归的方法建立了南昌市早稻产量的气候预测模型。经检验,模型预测结果与早稻实际单产拟合率较高,平均精度达97.0%。此模型预测结果可在早稻产量预报分析中提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 For predict the early rice yield better,the data were analyzed in this paper,which included the meteorological factors and rice yield from the 1994 to 2010 in Nanchang,throughing the method of multiple linear regression and 5 year moving average.The climate prediction model was established.After testing,there is a high fitting rate between the model prediction results and actual yield of early rice.The average accuracy is 97.0%.The result indicate that this model could provide scientific basis for early rice yield forecast analysis.更多还原