【作者】 张力方； 兰景岩； 吕悦军； 李山有；

【Author】 ZHANG Lifang;LAN Jingyan;L Yuejun;LI Shanyou;Institute of Crustal Dynamics,China Earthquake Administration;Guilin University of Technology;Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration;

【机构】 中国地震局地壳应力研究所； 桂林理工大学； 中国地震局工程力学研究所；

【摘要】 鲜水河断裂带是中国西南地区一条活动强烈的大型左旋走滑断裂带,具有规模大、活动性强、地震频度高、潜在次生地震地质灾害严重等特点,其地震活动具有特征地震的典型特征,且活断层分段特征明显。本文建立活断层分段上的特征地震模型进行未来地震动预测研究,依据各分段的特征震级、特征破裂断面的几何尺寸、应力降和地震矩等重要震源参数,建立各分段上的随机有限断层震源模型,合成得到各分段观测点的地震动时程与峰值,最终得到整个断裂带的特征地震下的地震动场预测图。研究成果对中国的防震减灾工作具有重要的意义,技术方法可作为中国地震区划技术发展的有益探索。更多还原

【Abstract】 Xianshuihe fault zone is a strong left-lateral strike-slip fault,with large strength and high frequency activity,exposes millions of people to potential risk from strong motion and earthquake-induced secondary geological disasters in southwest China.The seismicity on this faults zone has the typical features of characteristic earthquakes and obvious active faults segmentation.In this work base on characteristic earthquake model in each active fault segmentation,seismic time history and peak value of strong ground motions on near field observation points is predicted by stochastic finite-fault source model.Parameters of source model composed by magnitude of characteristic earthquake,geometric dimensioning of characteristic rupture plane,the stress drop and so on.Finally,the prediction map of ground motion made by characteristic earthquake near the whole fault zone is obtained.Research technology and methods have important implications for China’s earthquake disaster reduction work,and benefit innovation and development of China’s seismic zoning.更多还原